Just eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach scolded him over missing a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were a sign or the reason of the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was much more joyous. After the in-form star swept in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, now sit just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard proposition to address. History, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, while the positive results have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a team that have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – but right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their talisman to save the day with some crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred in London, and again versus Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, arced just inside the upright from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more shots and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality where, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the force he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a title charge while looking like a vital England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
